Linden Predicts $450M In Second Life User Transactions For 2009

Yesterday on the Second Life Blog, Linden Lab predicted that the user-to-user economy for Second Life in 2009 would be $450 million. This is based on a 2008 user-to-user economy worth $350 million, $100 million of which was revenue generated for users by their user-generated activities. While Linden acknowledges that some of that revenue may have come back to Linden Lab in the form of Land maintenance fees, most of it was pocketed by end users engaging in Second Life business.

Linden also disclosed some vital facts about who is earning revenue in Second Life. The top category of earners is Landowners, who control virtual properties in the game. This is followed by content creators, users who craft and sell virtual goods, and then event managers who arrange and host community meetings at various sites within the virtual world. 

On the whole, Linden reported that the state of Second Life's virtual economy was healthy and unlikely to be affected by the real world downturn. The active user base, number of repeat log-ins, usage hours, and user-to-user transactions are all increasing steadily. Concurrent user numbers are at an all-time high.

Linden also reported data from a survey sent to all Second Life business owners and operators, which generated 2.465 responses, 767 of whom own came from business that own no Land. 48% of respondents came from outside the US. Of that sample, 61% were optimistic that their revenue would increase in the coming year, 68% are maintaining or increasing their investments, and 64% generated positive net income from Second Life activities. However, Second Life income was only supplemental for all but 5% of respondents. For most respondents, 52%, Second Life generated up to 20% of their total income. Furthermore, 8 out of 10 Second Life businesses are owned and run by sole proprietors. 

The spin Linden puts on the data is that Second Life is going to be resilient throughout the crisis because Second Life residents can easily turn their involvement into a sideline business that defrays any costs and puts a little spending money back into otherwise empty pockets. This is a refrain we can expect to keep hearing from virtual worlds and goods economies where it's possible for users to turn a profit on activities in the world until the real world economy improves. In many cases it's not just spin, although statistically the majority of users in Second Life and other economies reliant on user-generated content will never be more than consumers.

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